UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN BUILDING SIMULATION WITH MONTE CARLO TECHNIQUES
Sebastian Burhenne, Dirk Jacob, Gregor P. Henze
From a modeling perspective, the thermal characteris- tics of buildings must be described with the help of param- eters that often cannot be estimated with high accuracy. Results from simulations relying on erroneous parameter values can lead to inaccuracies which are hard to quantify, and small perturbations to a sensitive parameter can influ- ence the results significantly. By examining the impact of uncertainties, it is possible to increase simulation quality, and thus inferences from the results. In this paper, the un- certainty associated with model parameters of a building using a solar thermal collector for heating and domestic hot water is analyzed. The influence of the uncertain pa- rameters and variables on the solar fraction is quantified through the use of Monte Carlo simulations. The relation- ship between uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis is examined, as well as a practical methodology suggested to support the building design process and related decision making.
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